Skip to content

Has an LLM been devised or fine-tuned specifically for the purpose of simulating geopolitical scenarios?

Generation Details

Date LLM Access Method
Nov 2024 GPT-4 Web UI

While large language models (LLMs) like GPT-4 are general-purpose models, there have been efforts in fine-tuning or adapting LLMs specifically for geopolitical scenario modeling and analysis. These models are often used in academia, think tanks, and government institutions to simulate political events, forecast geopolitical risks, and evaluate potential future outcomes. However, a few specific projects have emerged that are focused on this niche.

Here are examples of how LLMs are being adapted or fine-tuned for geopolitical modeling and forecasting:

1. POLITICA: AI for International Relations

  • Description: POLITICA is a research project that uses machine learning models, including LLMs, to simulate political events and generate predictive geopolitical scenarios. This project focuses on international relations, political risk, and future event forecasting.
  • Focus: POLITICA focuses on simulating international relations and predicting geopolitical risks, drawing on historical data and models of global politics.
  • Use Cases: Scenario generation for geopolitical events such as military conflicts, economic sanctions, or political transitions.
  • Access: Primarily used in academic and policy-making circles, but it's part of ongoing research on using AI for geopolitics.

2. GDELT with LLMs for Geopolitical Forecasting

  • Description: GDELT (Global Database of Events, Language, and Tone) is a massive open dataset that monitors global events in real-time and records interactions between countries, organizations, and other entities. Researchers and institutions are using LLMs in conjunction with GDELT to generate geopolitical forecasts.
  • Focus: While GDELT itself is not an LLM, models such as GPT-4 and BERT have been fine-tuned on GDELT’s data to predict geopolitical outcomes based on historical event data.
  • Use Cases: Predicting conflict outbreaks, political instability, or economic shifts based on current global events.
  • Access: Open data via GDELT; LLM models trained on this data are typically part of research projects.

3. OpenAI GPT-4 and Custom Fine-Tuning for Geopolitical Forecasting

  • Description: OpenAI's GPT-4 has been fine-tuned by various research institutions for specific applications in geopolitical analysis and scenario generation. These custom models draw on large datasets of political, military, and economic events to generate predictions or simulate future outcomes.
  • Focus: These models are adapted to simulate different scenarios based on current geopolitical situations, allowing users to input current events and receive plausible outcomes.
  • Use Cases: Modeling the impact of sanctions, potential outcomes of political unrest, or conflict escalation.
  • Access: Available via OpenAI API for custom fine-tuning.

4. NATO’s SACT AI Program

  • Description: NATO’s Supreme Allied Commander Transformation (SACT) has explored the use of AI and LLMs for geopolitical scenario modeling. These efforts focus on improving decision-making by simulating conflicts and global political risks using machine learning and LLMs.
  • Focus: Military and geopolitical simulations, including multi-country conflict scenarios, alliance stability, and strategic forecasting.
  • Use Cases: Simulating conflict outcomes, predicting shifts in geopolitical alliances, and forecasting potential flashpoints in international relations.
  • Access: Primarily internal to NATO, but relevant research papers and findings are often shared publicly.

5. UNICRI’s AI for Strategic Intelligence

  • Description: The United Nations Interregional Crime and Justice Research Institute (UNICRI) has been using AI, including LLMs, for geopolitical risk modeling and conflict prediction. Their initiative seeks to develop AI models that can help forecast global security issues, such as terrorism, political instability, and conflict escalation.
  • Focus: Global security and risk forecasting, especially in fragile regions.
  • Use Cases: Scenario modeling for terrorism threats, the impact of regional conflicts, and economic sanctions.
  • Access: Some research papers are publicly available; tools are mainly used by UN agencies.

6. AI for Strategic Foresight and Risk Analysis

  • Description: Various think tanks and research institutions are using or developing custom LLMs to assist in strategic foresight and geopolitical risk analysis. These models are trained on datasets of international relations, economic data, military operations, and diplomatic negotiations.
  • Focus: These models aim to simulate complex geopolitical scenarios and generate possible future outcomes based on user-defined variables.
  • Use Cases: Predicting how economic sanctions will affect global stability, forecasting military conflicts, and modeling shifts in diplomatic alliances.
  • Access: Many of these models are still experimental and are typically available within research institutions.

7. Country-Specific Geopolitical Modeling Efforts

  • Description: Certain countries are developing LLMs or AI systems to forecast and model geopolitical scenarios. For example, China’s AI initiatives in geopolitical modeling use machine learning to anticipate international relations outcomes, while the U.S. has military and governmental projects working on similar applications.
  • Focus: Custom LLMs are being fine-tuned to simulate specific geopolitical environments, such as Middle Eastern conflicts or Asian geopolitical stability.
  • Use Cases: Predicting economic warfare scenarios, military escalation, or diplomatic negotiations.
  • Access: Typically internal or available for governmental and military purposes, though research findings are sometimes shared publicly.

Summary

While there is no widely known LLM specifically developed solely for geopolitical scenario modeling, there are numerous efforts to adapt and fine-tune general LLMs like GPT-4, BERT, and custom models for this purpose. These models are being used in research, military, and strategic intelligence applications to simulate scenarios, forecast political events, and provide actionable insights into global affairs.

These models can assist analysts, policymakers, and businesses in understanding the implications of current events, helping to predict potential geopolitical outcomes. Access to many of these models depends on research affiliations, military contracts, or specific subscriptions, but some are open for public or academic use.

Let me know if you’d like more detailed information on any of these models or research projects!

The above text was generated by a large language model (LLM) and its accuracy has not been validated. This page is part of 'LLMs-on-LLMs,' a Github repository by Daniel Rosehill which explores how curious humans can use LLMs to better their understanding of LLMs and AI. However, the information should not be regarded as authoritative and given the fast pace of evolution in LLM technology will eventually become deprecated. This footer was added at 16-Nov-2024.